SpaceX Nasdaq debut today: here are the final analyst calls before the bell

SpaceX is set to make its Nasdaq debut today in what is expected to be the largest initial public offering ever, with shares priced at a fixed $135 and the company targeting a valuation of about $1.77 trillion.

The Elon Musk-led company is raising $75 billion under the ticker SPCX, giving investors a rare chance to buy into a business spanning rockets, Starlink satellite internet, and artificial intelligence infrastructure.

The question before the opening bell is simple: Does the valuation already price in the future, or is Wall Street still underestimating the scale of the opportunity?

The bulls: $190 and beyond

The most aggressive early call has come from Oppenheimer’s Timothy Horan, whose firm became the first global brokerage outside the underwriting group to initiate coverage on SpaceX.

Oppenheimer started the stock with an Outperform rating and a $190 price target, implying roughly 41% upside from the IPO price.

That target would value SpaceX at about $2.5 trillion over the next 12 to 18 months.

“We see it as the only vertically integrated AI company with the required capital, data, LLMs, hardware, manufacturing, and engineering talent,” Horan said in a note.

That line captures the bullish case, as for supporters, SpaceX is no longer just a rocket company.

Starlink is expected to remain the main cash generator in the near term, but the bigger prize is seen in AI infrastructure, where SpaceX could use satellites, data centres, and xAI-related assets to build a platform that few rivals can copy.

New Street Research’s Pierre Ferragu also struck a positive tone, setting a 12-month target of $165 a share, about 22% above the IPO price.

His more optimistic scenario sees the shares rising as high as $330 if SpaceX captures a large share of emerging markets tied to Starlink, artificial intelligence, and orbital infrastructure.

ARK Invest’s Cathie Wood has also backed the IPO valuation, arguing that the $1.75 trillion target can be justified by a plausible growth path for Starlink, Starship, and orbital AI.

Morgan Stanley has gone even further on the long-term opportunity as the bank sees SpaceX revenue potentially reaching $3.4 trillion by 2040.

The thread running through the bullish camp is clear: the real story is not only launches.

It is Starlink, AI compute, and the possibility that SpaceX becomes a core infrastructure company for the next era of technology.

Also read- How to Buy SpaceX Stock in 2026: Before and After the IPO

SpaceX IPO warning signs

The strongest warning comes from Morningstar, where analyst Nicolas Owens has placed SpaceX’s fair value at $780 billion, less than half the IPO valuation.

“We think the company has been significantly overvalued and investors will have opportunities to buy the stock at more attractive levels after the IPO,” Owens said.

Morningstar’s concern is not that SpaceX lacks quality assets. Its research gives value to the launch and Starlink businesses.

The issue is how much of the IPO price depends on businesses that are still early, uncertain, or technically difficult, including orbital data centres and AI ambitions linked to xAI.

The financials explain why the warning matters. SpaceX reported a net loss of $4.9 billion in 2025, after a profit the previous year.

Filing summaries have also pointed to a steep $4.3 billion net loss in the first quarter of 2026, even as quarterly revenue rose to about $4.7 billion.

Goldman Sachs has also framed the valuation test in demanding terms.

To support a valuation around $1.75 trillion through the end of the decade, SpaceX would need revenue growth on a scale rarely seen in public markets.

A reported Goldman model sees total revenue reaching $474 billion by 2030, with AI revenue doing much of the heavy lifting.

Aswath Damodaran, the NYU finance professor known for his valuation work, sits between the two extremes.

His discounted cash flow model has put a fair value around $1.2 trillion, below the IPO valuation but far above Morningstar’s estimate.

What could move the stock on day one?

Beyond the analyst debate, day-one trading may be shaped by supply as much as fundamentals.

Only a small portion of SpaceX shares will be available to trade at launch, creating a tight float.

Horan has explicitly warned of “an initial demand/supply imbalance on SPCX shares given broad retail demand and accelerated index inclusion."

That matters because SpaceX is expected to draw heavy retail and institutional interest.

Ahead of pricing, reports suggested the IPO was four times oversubscribed, with orders reaching about $250 billion against the $75 billion raise.

Index inclusion is another potential support. A Nasdaq rule change means a newly public company of SpaceX’s size could become eligible for Nasdaq-100 inclusion within 15 trading days.

If that happens, passive funds tracking the index may have to buy the stock, creating additional demand after the listing.

Still, investors will also watch the lock-up calendar.

SpaceX has a staggered structure that may allow some holders to sell portions of their shares after 70, 90, 105, 120, and 135 days.

That spreads out potential selling pressure, but it also creates several volatility windows later this year.

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